Clipping of news on Brazilian Culture, Law and Citizenship
01/18/2013
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
In more than a decade, have been very few periods in which fixed-income investments, such as investment funds and CDs, not helped investors to protect their money against wear prices.
This year, the fight between interest and inflation follows unbalanced, but for the second opponent.
Against the prospect of a basic interest rate (which influences the gains of funds and CDs) of 7.25% this year, a scenario reinforced yesterday by the Central Bank, financial sector economists expect inflation between 5.5% and 6 % for 2013.
Taking into account the impact of income tax, plus the management fees charged by banks, hardly traditional products must meet savers.
According to personal finance experts, applications linked to some price index are on the agenda
Treasury Direct is an option
The federal Treasury Direct program can be one of the possible paths of the investor.
If you believe that interest rates will fall further, you can go for fixed rate products (LTN and NTN-Fs) if you think interest rates will go up, has the post-fixed (LFTs) and is very worried about inflation should give preference to securities linked to price indexes (NTN-Bs).
Professor Ricardo Torres, Business School of São Paulo, notes that some bonds are less attractive in the short term (12 months). The rates offered by LTNs, for example, are very close to the expected inflation and provide little benefit to the investor.
"The NTN-Bs still an interesting product," says economist Jason Vieira, MoneYou site.
Fixed Income Fund Indices
There is a family of investment funds, denominated Fixed Income Fund Index, applying the cash investor preferably in securities that protect against inflation.
Last year, these funds have provided gain an average of 21%. But there are no guarantees, nor expectations by experts, that these applications repeat performance this year.
If you choose this product, the investor must be aware of the fees charged by banks. "Management fees in Brazil are still very high," said Vieira.
Chase or flee the Ibovespa?
Much of equity funds available to banks aims to "chase" the Ibovespa indicator, the thermometer of the Brazilian stock market, the more used to tell if the stock has risen or fallen in a given period.
This index, according to some projections released earlier this year, can grow between 10% and 15% in 2013.
Expectations: a gradual recovery in the U.S., mainly from the second half; rates still robust growth in China, and a level slightly better growth in Brazil. Risks: a worsening European crisis, mainly, and a negative outcome of the novel's "fiscal gap" in the U.S..
Other experts, however, suggest that investors "flee" Ibovespa and be more selective. The reason: for now, there seems to be little enthusiasm for this market for many investors. Many foreigners left the Brazilian Stock Exchange, as well as domestic investors of type person. Without new money, it will be harder to recover Ibovespa ground.
Actions indicated
BB Investimentos, Banco do Brazil, indicates a positive outlook for shares of the retail and consumer, logistics and transportation, capital goods and agribusiness.
Analysts that institution run of three main premises: the country will continue spending on infrastructure, because of the World Cup (2014) and Olympics (2016); consumption will follow expanding, thanks to credit growth (albeit moderate) and lower interest rates, commodity prices (raw materials) must increase agricultural in 2013.
The brokerage also suggests that the saver keep an eye on so-called "small caps", midsize companies with shares on the exchange.
"For small caps, our outlook remains positive, especially for the education sector, considering the still favorable scenario for the provision of basic and higher education in the country," says the analyst Mario Bernardes Junior, in a report released this week.
The work also draws attention to the health sector, subject to the risk of entry of foreign competitors in this segment of the economy.
Where will interest?
The benchmark interest rate, currently at 7.25% per annum, influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. In theory, when the government is more concerned about inflation, interest rates tend to rise, when the concern with the level of economic growth is more marked, the rate tends to fall.
For now, the predominant scenario designed by several economists point to the maintenance of basic interest in 7.25% by the end of this year.
This does not mean that the basic interest rate should stay put indefinitely. Economist at brokerage Concordia, Flavio Combat believes that the interest may begin to rise in early 2014, reaching 9% at the end of next year.
The majority of the market, according to research regular Central Bank, bet on a base rate at around 8.25% for that period.
The government, in fact, facing an impasse in the optical market: is concerned about the pace of growth - as demonstrated by the various measures taken in recent years that - but the rate of inflation can not be ignored.
"The scenario we face is that inflation will go down further," said Jason Vieira.
"The [price indices] IGPs went well last year. Believe that in 2013 they will switch places with the IPCA, which tends to rise more strongly this year," says Ricardo Torres.
Source: Site Uol
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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.