Clipping of news on Brazilian Culture, Law and Citizenship
07/23/2012
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
Kelly Oliveira
Reporter Agency Brazil
Brasilia - The projection of analysts of financial institutions for inflation measured by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2012 rose for the second straight week, moving from 4.87% to 4.92%. The information contained in the Focus newsletter, a weekly publication issued by the Central Bank (BC), based on estimates of the financial market. For next year, the forecast for the IPCA remained at 5.5% for four consecutive weeks.
The estimates are above the central target of 4.5%, but below the upper limit of 6.5%. BC falls to keep inflation under control. One of the instruments that the institution uses to control inflation and activity level is the basic interest rate, the Selic.
How do you think the risks for inflation are low and the pace of economic activity is slowing, the Fed has cut the Selic rate since August last year. Therefore, analysts expect that in August, when will the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of BC, the Selic rate is reduced from the current 8% to 7.5% per year. By the end of 2013, the expectation is that the Selic back to the level of 8.5%. Next year, there is the prospect that the economy is warmer and therefore it is necessary to raise the Selic that prices will not spiral out of control.
In the last 19 days, the Committee stressed that any further reduction in the basic interest rate, the Selic, must be done "sparingly." From the minutes of the meeting of April, when the base rate reduced by 0.75 percentage point, the Committee has been repeating the words "sparingly." After that, the meetings in May and July, there were reductions of 0.5 percentage points.
According to the Focus bulletin, the estimate of analysts for economic growth (Gross Domestic Product, GDP), which was down ten weeks, has now been maintained at 1.9% this year. For 2013, the projection is also unchanged (4.1%).
The estimation for industrial production, with downward adjustments for eight weeks, spent the expected expansion of 0.09% to 0.04% contraction this year. For 2013, the expectation is that there is recovery, with growth of 4.3%.
Edition: Juliana Andrade
Source: Agency Brazil
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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.