Clipping of news on Brazilian Culture, Law and Citizenship
05/25/2012
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
Brazilian researchers put a "magnifying glass" on the impacts of climate change in Ontario and found that the third richest state in the country could lose up to R$ 450 billion over the next 38 years, with losses in agriculture and industry, and have severe sharp inequalities regional, especially the migration of residents to other areas of Brazil.
The study organized by the University of São Paulo (USP) in partnership with the State Environmental (Feam), linked to the government of Minas Gerais, took a year and a half to complete and examined the effects of temperature rise between 2 º C and 5 º C by 2050 in 65 mining areas.
The application was made from a platform developed in the country in 2009, found that the impact of climate change in Brazil's economy, and with scenario adapted from studies published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the national reality . At the time, it was anticipated that the damage could reach R$ 3.6 trillion by 2050.
In both scenarios for the temperature in the region increases by 2ºC and 4°C and 3°C and 5°C, respectively - the latter scenario is the worst and takes into account actions of adaptation in relation to climate taken by government and private enterprise.
With the increase, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) state can be reduced from 0.53% and 2.69%, compared with the value achieved in 2008 - a loss between R$ 155 billion and R$ 450 billion.
Regional impacts - the Northern Areas of Minas, as the Valleys of Jequitinhonha and Mucuri, the Minas Triangle and south of the state may suffer from the lack of rainfall, leading to reduced agricultural productivity, causing a rural exodus. In some cases, the abundance of precipitation also affect the production.
This migration has even worries the government of Minas Gerais, which plans actions to adapt economic activities to climate change.
According to Felipe Nunes, Feam of the study generated alerts to the state government can develop programs to help the farmer to adapt his crops to climate change and at the same time reduce emissions of greenhouse gases - agriculture is the activity that emits more CO2 in Minas Gerais.
According Janaína França, there is already planning to launch a state plan to reduce emissions, scheduled for after 2015.
Proportionate losses - The survey shows that the central region of Minas Gerais (Belo Horizonte and other cities dependent on industry and services) that is suffer more impact on the economy: an estimated loss of R$ 114.2 billion and R$ 335,39 billion.
Sectors such as steel, which would slow the pace of production due to decreased electricity generation, caused by low flow of rivers that supply power plants.
The pressure for land for agriculture, affected due to drought, increase the clearing of native vegetation in 34.7% by 2050 (an estimated loss of 25,609 km ², equivalent to more than four times the size of the Federal District).
"That due to the change in land use that would be converted to agricultural activities. In this case, nor take into account anticipated changes in the Forest Code, "said Eduardo Haddad, professor of Economics at USP and one of the organizers of the study.
Haddad also said that the study did not add potential damage caused by extreme weather events. "These are conservative estimates. What we consider are the silent changes that happen over time and increase social inequalities, "he explains.
Source: Environment Brazil
Our news are taken in full of our partner sites. For this reason, we can not change the content of these up in case of typing errors.
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.