Analysts believe Copom keep Selic at 10.75%
31/08/2010
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
Stênio Ribeiro, AGÊNCIA BRASIL
Reuters/Arquivo
Today the basic interest rate is 10.75% a year, after suffering three consecutive adjustments
The Central Bank president, Henrique Meirelles, meets on Tuesday with the other members of the Monetary Policy Committee
Brasília - Today (31) over a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) Central Bank (BC) to discuss the direction of the basic interest rate (Selic), which is 10.75% per annum after three adjustments followed: 8.75% to 9.50% through April, then to 10.25% in June and the current level in July.
Most financial analysts believe, however, that are strengthened in the domestic market indicators that the Fed must contain the process of monetary tightening already in the meeting, which ends tomorrow (1). Among these indicators stand out, mainly to control inflation, which is declining, then on the upside early this year.
This is the understanding of the president of the Association of Financial State of Rio de Janeiro (Secif-RJ), José Arthur Assuncão. He believes that "the cycle of Selic rate adjustments came to an end" and predicts that with the gradual return of inflation to the central target of 4.5%, increase the chances of getting the Monetary Policy Committee to reduce the basic interest rate in the second quarter of next year.
The chief economist at Banco Schahin Silvio Campos Neto, is also confident that the college of BC directors must decide for maintaining the current rate. He says that although the constraints of domestic growth remain solid, with growth of income and credit, "the mildest behavior of inflation and rising global uncertainties should give support to the decision of the BC" by the end of the process of monetary tightening.
Maristella Ansanelli, Head of Economic Department of the Banco Fibra, also confirms that "all signs point to the maintenance of the Selic rate from current levels." She says that unlike the climate of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (20 and July 21), expectations are now very coordinated, although the projections for inflation also have large dispersion.
The Economist estimates that the price indices can re-accelerate as of September, both on account of the impacts of continued tightening of the labor market as the recovery in prices of foodstuffs. She recalls that the main focus of inflationary pressure in the coming months, must come from wages, since they are programmed key wage adjustments.
Source: Portal Exame
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
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