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Economic indicators

Market improves projection for GDP in 2009 and 2010

This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.


 


The estimate for the performance of the Brazilian economy in 2009 showed slight improvement in the Focus weekly survey released today by the Central Bank. In the survey conducted among financial institutions, the forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) this year went from an increase of 0.01% to a high of 0.10%. For 2010, the forecast for GDP also improved from a growth of 4.50% projected in the previous study for an expansion of 4.80% in today's report. In the same survey, the estimate for industrial production in 2009 following negative and had a slight worsening, from a fall of 7.53% to a low of 7.55%. For 2010, the projection for the performance of the industry increased from growth of 6.00% to a high of 6.15%.

Interest and inflation

Research Focus maintained its forecast that the benchmark interest rate (Selic) should end the year in the current 8.75% per annum. Towards the end of 2010, the projection of the high rate increased from 9.75% to 10.25% annually.

The financial market has reduced the expectation for the Index of Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2009, from 4.31% to 4.29%. With the reduction, the forecast of analysts remained within the inflation target for this year, which is 4.50%. In the same survey, the estimate for the IPCA in 2010 remained at 4.40%, below the central target, which is also 4.50% next year.

The estimate for the short-term inflation rose. For October, the forecast for the IPCA rose 0.30% to 0.31%. The data IPCA October should be disclosed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on November 11. For November, the estimate of IPCA remained at 0.35%.

Exchange and external accounts

Analysts have reduced estimates for the level of the dollar at the end of the year. The level of U.S. currency at the end of 2009 was R$ 1.76, against a previous forecast of R$ 1.80. To end of 2010, was retained to provide that the dollar will be a R$ 1.80. The expected average exchange rate during 2009 stood at R$ 2.00.

The financial market has also changed the forecast for the deficit in external accounts in 2009. The forecast for the current account deficit this year rose from US$ 15.55 billion to US$ 15.80 billion. For 2010, the forecast deficit on current account of balance of payments remained at US$ 25 billion.

The expected trade surplus in 2009 stood at US$ 25.85 billion. For 2010, the estimate for the trade balance fell from US$ 17.8 billion to US$ 17.3 billion.

Analysts forecast a continued inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2009 at US$ 25 billion. For 2010, the estimate of FDI rose from US$ 30.30 billion to US$ 31 billion.




Source: State Agency

This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.

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