Market already provides zero economic growth for Brazil this year
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
Financial markets fall again in the last week, the forecast of economic growth of the Brazilian economy and has an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.01%, according to the report of the market, also known as Focus, which was disclosed this Monday (23) by the Central Bank. The week delay, the forecast had already retreated from 1.20% to 0.59% growth. For 2010, the market's expectation for GDP growth remained stable at 3.50%.
During most of last year, the financial market projection for GDP growth in 2009 was 3.50%. The government's official projection for growth this year has been at 5% in the Law of Budget Guidelines. However, it was revised four times and now, is already at 2%. The Central Bank estimates, to date, 3.20% in the economy, but this number should also review this month, by the inflation report.
The estimate of the financial market for industrial production, in turn, remains negative. The week delay, the market anticipated a fall of 1.59% for this indicator in 2009, which was reduced to a reduction of 2% last week. For 2010, the market remained at 4% of its growth projection for industrial production.
Interest
After the cut of 1.5 percentage point in interest on the week delay, to 11.25% a year - the lowest level in history - the financial markets continued to forecast a cut of one percentage point in interest rates in April, to 10, 25% per year. To the end of this year, however, the expectation of the market for interest rate fell from 9.75% to 9.25% per annum. If confirmed the prediction, is the first time in history that interest shall be in single digits, ie below 10% per year. The expectation for the market interest rate at the end of 2010 was maintained at 9.75% per annum.
Inflation
In Brazil, the force system of inflation targets, which the BC has to targets pre-determined by the government, the main instrument the interest rate. For 2009 and 2010, the central goal of inflation is 4.50%.
However, there is a tolerance interval of two percentage points up or down on the central goal. Thus, inflation can vary between 2.50% and 6.50% without a goal is formally descumprido. The BC has already informed that seeks to bring inflation to the central goal already in 2009.
The expectation of falling market interest rates due to inflation under control, which is also a result of the international financial crisis - which is decreasing the demand for products and services in Brazil and creating a lower pressure on prices.
Last week, the expectation of the financial market to the Consumer Price Index Expanded (IPCA) in 2009 declined from 4.52% to 4.42%, or is below the central target of 4.50% this year. For 2010, the estimated market for the IPCA remained at 4.50%.
Exchange rate
Last week, since it was released this Monday (23), the projection of the financial market for the exchange rate at the end of 2009 remained unchanged at $ 2.30 per U.S. dollar. Since the worsening of the international financial crisis, has been reported a greater output of resources of the Brazilian economy, which has pushed the dollar up. To the end of 2010, the projection was also stable at R $ 2.30 per dollar.
Trade Balance
In the case of Brazilian trade balance, the projection of the financial market for the balance (exports minus imports) of 2009 was maintained at $ 13 billion. In 2008, the trade balance had a surplus of U.S. $ 24.7 billion, with a strong decrease of 38.2% before the year 2007, when the result somou $ 40 billion. For 2010, the estimates rose from U.S. $ 13 billion to $ 13.3 billion of a positive result.
In the case of foreign direct investment, the financial market expectations for 2009 remained at $ 22 billion in the last week. For 2010, the projection of income from investments in Brazil was stable at $ 25 billion.
Source: O Globo Online
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
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