Basic interest rate to reach 10.38% at the end of this year
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The projection for the basic interest rate, the Selic, the end of this year fell from 10.5% to 10.38%. For 2010, the expectation was adjusted from 10.5% to 10.25%. Information is the Focus bulletin, published weekly Central Bank (BC) developed based on estimates of market analysts on the main indicators of the economy.
The Selic is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of BC and used by the monetary authority to control inflation. For the next month, when there will be a meeting of the committee, analysts maintained that the projection of the base rate is reduced from the current 12.75% to 11.75% per annum.
Analysts expect the interest rate cuts for the slowdown of the economy this year, one effect of the international financial crisis, and the expectation that inflation remains under control, ie within the target government. The estimate for the exchange rate at the end of 2009 was kept at R $ 2.30 and for 2010 was adjusted from R $ 2.28 to $ 2.27.
The expectation for the trade surplus (balance of exports minus imports) was adjusted to $ 14 billion to $ 13.6 billion in 2009, and $ 13.85 billion to $ 13 billion next year. The estimate for the current account deficit (all transactions with the outside of Brazil) in 2009 was maintained at $ 25 billion and adjusted to $ 27 billion to $ 26.31 billion next year.
The projection for foreign direct investment (money that enters the productive part of the economy) in 2009 remained at $ 23 billion and $ 25 billion in 2010. The estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), sum of all goods and services produced in the country, was maintained at 1.5% in 2009 and 3.6% in 2010. For the industrial production has changed the forecast of 1.5% to 1.3% in 2009 and held an estimated 4% in 2010.
Analysts estimate that the net public sector debt remains at 36.10% of GDP this year, compared with the previous expectation of 36.20%. For 2010, the projection was changed from 35.25% to 35%. The lower the ratio between debt and GDP, the greater the investor's confidence in the ability of Brazil to honor its commitments.
Source: Agência Brasil
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