Amazon dry, but survive the heat, says study
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
The Amazon may be less vulnerable to global warming than was feared, because most projections underestimate the volume of rain, according to a new study released on Monday (9) by scientists in Britain.
According to them, Brazil and other countries in the region must endeavor to avoid an irreversible drying of eastern Amazonia, the region most threatened by climate change, deforestation and burning.
"The regime of rains in the eastern Amazon should change during the 21st century in a direction that favors more seasonal forests instead of closed," wrote the scientists in this week edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
The forests are seasonal wet and dry seasons, unlike the current rainforest, wet survival. The change could help new species of plants and animals.
The new study compares with previous projections that the Amazon could be replaced by savanna. In 2007, a report by the UN Climate Panel, which brings together the world's leading climatologists, warned that "by mid-century, increases in temperature and the corresponding decline in soil water should lead to a gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in east the Amazon. "
The new study says that almost all the 19 global climate models underestimate the rainfall in most tropical forest in the world - finding obtained on the basis of comparisons of models with the observations of climate over the 20th century.
The plains have a Amazon annual rainfall of 2,400 millimeters, and even with the reductions provided for them must continue to maintain a sufficiently humid forest, according to the study.
The experts also responded to field studies of how Amazon might react to dryness. They showed that the seasonal forests would be more resistant to any dry, but more vulnerable to fire than the current forest.
The study also warns of the risks households by the fragmentation of the forest due to the opening of roads and crops.
"The fundamental way to minimize the risk of degradation of the Amazon is to control overall emissions of greenhouse effect gases, particularly the burning of fossil fuels in the developed world and Asia," said Yadvinder Malhi, coordinator of the study, University of Oxford.
But he said that the governments of the region, especially Brazil, also need to better manage forests.
Global warming, according to scientists, is "accompanied by an intensity unprecedented in the direct pressure on tropical forests through the extraction of timber, deforestation, fragmentation and use of fire."
Source: Reuters
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