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The confidence of consumers showed "mild recovery" in January, with a positive rate of 3% for the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). However, the consumer it is still very cautious, when comparing the results of the first month of this year the same periods in previous years. The analysis is the coordinator of the Center for Research and Economic Analysis of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Aloisio Campelo.
He said that the CCI score reached 100.3 points in January this year, the lowest level for a month in January, considered a period of optimism for the Brazilian consumer. "It's a result that may be relatively favorable compared with other macroeconomic data. But the level of CCI is very low in historical terms. The consumer is still pessimistic," said the economist.
He explained that when analyzing the performance of the index in January, you can see that there was a positive balance "on margin", but that scenario as a whole, particularly in the answers relating to expectations, are not cautious and optimistic. For him, the answers are an example of intended purchases of durable goods for the coming months, which in January reached the worst record in the history of the index.
By doing a retrospect of the performance of the index, the economist pointed out that in December last year, the indicator reached its worst level in the series, started in September 2005, influenced by the felling of expectations. In the last month of 2008, the responses of interviewees on the future direction of the economy, their financial situation and family purchasing intentions were very bad.
But in January, a month that the seasonal mood of consumers is more positive, as the beginning of the year, normally the answers on expectations tend to have some improvement. Therefore, when comparing the expectations of consumers in January to December, the projections of the respondents were compared with a base of answers in a very low level - which helped to form a positive rate for the ICC in January.
Campelo said that the slight recovery indicated by the indicator in January is being sustained by a hope to improve the local economy for the coming months, driven mainly by higher layers of income.
When you search the index by income groups, only among the families who earn between $ 4,800 and R $ 9,600 to CHF rose 5.9%, while among the families who earn over $ 9600, the indicator moved 3.5 %. "There is a widespread assessment among higher classes that the situation was already very bad, and have been very bad, now tends to improve," he said.
Another point highlighted by the economist is that there was improvement in future assessments of the consumer in relation to inflation and interest. In January the respondents foresee for the next 12 months rate of 6.9% for inflation, and the projection of that rate was 7.4% in December. In the case of interest, 25.55% of respondents expect to reduce the coming months, and that percentage was 16.5% in December last year. The FGV interviewed more than two thousand households in seven capital cities, to calculate the index.
Source: O Estado de S. Paulo
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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.