Clipping of news on Brazilian Culture, Law and Citizenship
10.13.2015
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
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The decline will be accompanied by a decrease of 2.3% in the number of vacancies for temporary hiring
Christmas this year will be worse than last year for the Brazilian market, according to estimates from organizations and industry experts. The National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), for example, predicts that sales in the period fell 4.1%. According to the CNC, it will first fall since the beginning of the time series on trade sales in 2004.
The decline will be accompanied by a decrease of 2.3% in the number of vacancies for temporary appointment, adds the CNC. "Temporary employment is a bet that the dealer does at Christmas. The higher sales growth, the greater the increase in hiring, "said economist CNC Fabio Bentes. Hiring for Christmas usually start in September and extend into November.
According to the CNC, one of the most affected sectors are the furniture and appliances, due to the currency depreciation, high inflation and, in particular, the credit enhancement. The projected decline this year to segment sales reaches 16.3%. "The situation should not improve until Christmas," Bentes said. As the basic interest rate (Selic) should not fall until the end of the year, Bentes said it consolidates the current record interest rates, which adversely affects sales and, indirectly, the temporary employment in the sector.
Economist cited data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), according to which trade recorded lower sales of 2.4% from January to July this year, compared to the same period last year. At the end of the year, CNC forecast is down 2.9%, worsening the Christmas holidays, when sales are expected to fall 4.1%. Bentes reminded that products sold at Christmas are more related to the variation of the dollar than throughout the year. This is the case of imported food, toys and even clothing. "With the dollar around R $ 4, this poses a great difficulty. Last Christmas, the dollar was at $ 2.65. "
To the economist, Christmas will still induce retailers to produce more negative than the numbers presented so far, because, aside from expensive credit, there is the high dollar, and the two factors push sales down. Last year, when the scenario was different, both sales and temporary hires at Christmas rose 1.8%.
Pessimism
The president of the Tenants Directors Club of Rio de Janeiro (CDL-Rio), Aldo Gonçalves, recalled that the country is going through a turmoil, and with the political and economic implications, it is difficult to make any predictions. "With high inflation, which erodes the worker's salary, with high interest rates, which are bad for the consumer and the merchant, and rising unemployment, plus the uncertainty, expectations are pessimistic."
Gonçalves said that low turnover, added to uncertainties, should reduce by 10% the temporary trade contracts at the end of the year. At Christmas 2014, the retail sales volume rose 1.8%, the worst result that the 2013 performance, when the increase was 3%.
The finance professor at the Getulio Vargas Luiz Eduardo Franco de Abreu Foundation said that the consumer must choose, at the end of the year, to purchase lower-value gifts. "Perhaps the number of presents decrease slightly, but the values are expected to decrease more."
Food
According to Abreu, similar phenomenon has begun to occur in the feeding area. Before, with greater purchasing power, the middle class opted for more expensive restaurants. Thus, such restaurants recorded higher revenues than other segments of the economy. Today there has been a change in this framework, said the teacher, and most consumers prefer restaurants that offer lower prices.
Abreu recommended that the employee keep a part of the 13th salary not to get increasing debts. "The best gift he can give yourself and family is to reduce the debt."
The chief economist of the Credit Protection Service (SPC Brazil), Marcela Kawauti, stressed that the role of the trade at the end of the year depends on the money entering the economy. "This year, we already know that the 13th will be lower. There are fewer people working, and who continues to work in real terms, are earning less. For that alone, the 13th will be weaker. "
Recent research by the SPC Brazil on temporary labor shows that nine out of ten entrepreneurs said they will not hire workers for Christmas. Because of inflation, rising unemployment and the deterioration in consumer confidence, "Christmas this year will be worse than in 2014," predicts Marcela.
For the Brazilian Association of Temporary Work, the unfavorable scenario in the Brazilian economy will affect final sales of year due to high interest rates, the advance of inflation and credit restrictions, factors that directly harm the consumption of Brazilians.
The average drop of 15% in the 1st half of 2015 in hiring of temporary workers, compared to the same period 2014, plus the worsening economic crisis, indicates that there will be down about 20% on temporary admissions in the next three months. The association estimates that this year the figure is closer to 107,800 contracts, compared to 134,800 at Christmas last year.
According to the association, who else hires temporary labor in the sector is the high street retail, and shopping malls and supermarkets, Most workers hired by the end of year period (65%) are between 18 and 40 years.
Source: iBahia
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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.