Clipping of news on Brazilian Culture, Law and Citizenship
03/20/2015
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
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After years of abundant credit, easy terms and conditions, consumer brakes search for credit is more expensive due to high interest rates, inflation and job insecurity
Luiz Rabbi, an economist at Serasa Experian
Carol Carquejeiro / Serasa Experian / Disclosure
Luiz Rabbi, an economist at Serasa Experian
The invoice credit card, car finance billet or the bike and the grocery bill can be the main enemies that the Brazilian consumer will have to fight in 2015. The country is currently experiencing a hangover caused by abundant credit offered in recent years - one of the incentive mechanisms used by the government to feed economic activity, employment and domestic consumption. Added to this, we hold in high inflation and interest rates and uncertainty in relation to job retention.
"We live a hangover credit that began in late 2013. This moment makes the consumer retreat from credit taken, because he wants to avoid default or excessive debt. Credit level up continues, there is credit. But the conditions are very different: the deadlines are shorter, the interest in lifting, spreads [difference between the cost of money to the bank and what it charges the customer, a kind of goodwill] are increasing. Is more difficult as a result of negative environment, "explains Luiz Rabbi, an economist at Serasa Experian.
Recent data from Serasa and SPC Brazil point to a loss of appetite for credit and lower consumers' willingness to take on debt. According to Serasa Experian, the credit demand fell 2.5% in January and fell 10.7% in February. In the annual comparison, increased only 0.9%, when the average of recent years was 5% growth in 12 months. "The interest rate, which is the price of credit is rising. It's not even the time to buy credit because the product [interest] is rising, "explains Rabbi.
According to the SPC Brazil, consultations for credit sales (indicator that functions as a purchase intention thermometer) fell for the second consecutive month in February when falling 4.83% compared to January (-28.85%).
Is not it time the consumer credit contract because economic environment needs adjustments that bring down high interest rates
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Is not it time the consumer credit contract because economic environment needs adjustments that bring down high interest rates
Marcela Kawauti, chief economist at SPC Brazil, explains that banks charge higher interest rate because the risk of default is growing, supported by other indicators such as consumer pessimism, the entrepreneur, with insecurity in relation to employment. "Many sectors make a severance motion or use mechanisms to reduce costs. The trend is that this year the industry, especially of durable goods, give collective vacations, reduce working hours, cut overtime, all in an effort not to fire, which also generates costs. This has an impact on income, liquidity and the expectation of who employs, buy or sell, "says Marcela.
The administrative analyst Fabiana Arnoldi, 34, is a good example of the situation that economists describe. She and her husband have car financing debt and two credit cards and are not willing to take more credit because "the interest is very high."
"Two months ago quitei a debt of a card, through a loan installments over 36 months. Now try creditors one by one to make agreement and pay gradually all, because I can not pay all at once. Looking for companies in search of agreement, but no one accepts. I have difficulties because it is clear that not want me quite a debt, want to gain from the interest on the interest, with the debt extension, "sighs the consumer. With three children, the youngest less than a year, Fabiana says she and her husband have no way to dispose of the car because they need to take and bring the children to care for others while working.
The Consumer Intention Index of Families checked by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), reached in March the lowest level of the series started in January 2010, recording a 6.1% fall in relation to February and 11.9% compared to March 2014. The index ended March 110.6 points and remains above the zone of indifference (100 points), indicating a still favorable level.
Economist Serasa says that banks and financial institutions never lose. "They get anyway, but with crisis and rising interest of the product, seem to go well right now," says Rabbi, Serasa Experian. For the the economist, the most advisable is the consumer does not borrow now instead should save until the economy re-gain confidence. "The only funding that is worth to be done right now is the house itself. That when you can change the portion of the funding for the rent. Is not it time to buy a property for investment only. Interest do not favor this kind of investment, "explains Rabbi.
About environment-friendly consumer depends on many factors
The chief economist at SPC Brazil explains why the economic situation is not conducive to the credit taken
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The chief economist at SPC Brazil explains why the economic situation is not conducive to the credit taken
Marcela Kawauti, SPC Brazil, explains that it is necessary to analyze the credit today considering not only the arrears of banks (creditors 50% of delinquent), but also the debts of trade, representing 20%, driven mainly by default installment plans and direct financing available at retail.
"Banks are being more careful when granting credit and the consumer is not assuming debt to buy white goods, car, motorcycle with longer maturities. This lack of provision or condition for the purchase also retracts the credit in commerce and industry, the sale of goods in general, and causes an effect in the supply chain, with industries going through a difficult time. Joins this entrepreneur without trust or inducement to invest and have the stagnation of activity, "says Marcela.
For Marcela, systemic improvement began to be grounded now and will only improve in mid 2016. "When the fiscal adjustment and monetary cycle is over, should improve confidence. We are still in the middle of the cycle. The fiscal adjustment [a series of measures to reduce government spending] not passed in Congress. The monetary adjustment [higher interest rate] has begun, but the impact takes 8-9 months. All this contributes to say that this year the credit is not going to boost the economy. The improvement only starts next year and will not be at the beginning of the year ", will be able Marcela.
The chief economist at SPC Brazil explains that inflation in the country is not only demand. "Inflation has to do with adjustment of administered prices that were dammed (electricity, gas) and were adjusted now. Low productivity also increases costs of our products. In summary, our inflation is structured and therefore is resistant. It takes time and requires adjustments to retreat. "Marcela also claims that the dollar impact on the chain also harms." We do not know how far does the price of currency today. It is an additional risk and is present in various components of the industry. "
Source: IG
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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.