Clipping of news on Brazilian Culture, Law and Citizenship
09/30/2013
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
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To the leaders of the IPCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ) , the slowdown in the rise in land temperatures over the last 15 years is a curious scientific phenomenon , but does not violate the global warming trend over the long term .
According to the scientists that make up the UN panel , the models that the entity uses to simulate the climate would only be wrong if temperatures climb quick stop for over 15 years.
"I would say with great confidence , however, that this is not a hypothesis with which we deal , given the level of emissions of greenhouse gases every year and we measure that is reaching unprecedented levels ," said Thomas Stocker , co-chair of the Group of 1 work of the IPCC, told a news conference .
In the opinion of the climatologist , the problem of giving too much weight to this phenomenon in the short term is that the heating only slowed in the measurement of the air temperature .
The oceans, which dominate the absorption of energy on earth , and glaciers continue to warm. There was no gap in the seas , which, according to the new IPCC report , accounted for more than 90 % of the extra energy that climate change is imprisoned on the planet between 1971 and 2010 .
The extra heat , recent studies suggest , may be going to the bottom of the sea , especially through anomalous circulation patterns in the Pacific . " The problem is that there is still a lot of literature that allows us to address this emerging issue in sufficient depth . "
In this case , literally lack depth to thermometers that monitor oceanic warming - pan .
Two relevant studies on the topic , said the scientific direction of the organization, were not published in time to be evaluated by the AR5 , the fifth assessment report of the panel, which began to be released yesterday .
The new IPCC document , so do not risk list physical mechanisms to explain the 15-year hiatus . Left panel show that other similar gaps did not result in braking of climate change thesis groups that deny global warming .
The final text of the document changed after four days of negotiations in Stockholm , gave the hiatus of minor significance compared to the one he received in the draft text submitted to governments for comments in June .
The final version says that the global average surface temperature " displays substantial interannual and decadal variability " despite a " strong multidecadal warming ." " The rate of warming over the last 15 years ( 0.05 ° C per decade ) , beginning with a strong El Niño , is less than the rate calculated from 1951 ( 0.12 ° C per decade ) ," says the text .
" There is a recommendation of the WMO ( World Meteorological Organization ) so that when we analyze issues on climate , we look at the long-term trends ," says Michel Jarraud , secretary general of the parent organization of the IPCC . " The consensus is that one of the best time scales for analyzing tendency that the weather is about 30 years. "
Reviews - The IPCC 's argument does not seem to have doubled the opinion of those who deny warming . The American Anthony Watts , a meteorologist from an affiliate of Fox News has one of the most read blogs antiaquecimento overall in the U.S. , criticized the climate panel report .
For him " the temperature record since 1998 does global warming become increasingly faced with natural variability ."
The general director of UNEP ( United Nations Program for the Environment ) , Achim Steiner , was careful on Friday ( 27 ) failing to disqualify the mere act of questioning the conclusions of the IPCC .
" There are those who prefer to focus on the question marks of the new report , and it is not inappropriate," he said. " But a perfect knowledge can not be a condition for humanity to make decisions . We may not know everything but we know enough to assess the risks of not acting . "
Uncertainty - Who expected to see the IPCC issued a report due shy hiatus scientists witnessed rise the alert tone . The " Summary for Policymakers " , document addressed to governments , give enough emphasis to the fact that the last three decades have been the warmest in history , beating record after record .
At the end of this century , the average surface temperature will likely exceed an average increase of 1.5 ° C by 2100 , relative to the average from 1850 to 1900 . This goes for all scenarios except the most optimistic , in which emissions suffer drastic cuts , peaking in ten years and dropping to zero after 50 years .
In an intermediate scenario , in which emissions doubling by 2060 and retreat to a level higher than the current before 2100, the temperature is likely to exceed an increase of 2 ° C threshold considered dangerous by scientists . In the worst scenario , in which triples the emission of greenhouse gases by 2100 , the average temperature probably would rise to 4.8 ° C.
The projected rise in sea level have been revised upwards . The waterline can rise 98 cm by the end of the century , advancing on average 82 cm between 2081 and 2100 . In the most optimistic scenario , it probably still rises above 26 cm more than the elevation of the 20th century .
The word "probably " in the language of the panel means a propensity above 66 % , the best possible reliability for future projections .
When evaluating the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on climate past, the report gives 95% certainty that the warming since the mid-20th century is a result of human influence . In 2007 , the report said that it was " very likely " ( 90 % ). ( Source : Folha.com )
Source : Environment Brazil
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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.