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Economic indicators

Market estimates and forecasts GDP higher new high interest this week

10/07/2013

This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.

 

 



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Expectations for GDP growth fell from 2.4% to 2.47 % .
Forecast for interest is new high of 0.5 to 9.5 % per year.

Economists financial market rose last week , its forecast for growth in Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) this year and kept the estimation of a new high interest rates later this week , according to the Central Bank on Monday ( 7) through market report , also known as Focus. The document of the monetary authority is the result of research with more than 100 financial institutions .
read more
BC lowers GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.5 %
Government reduces high official forecast of GDP this year from 3% to 2.5 %
Currently , the basic interest rates are at 9 % per year after four straight increases made by the Central Bank . The financial market has kept the expectation that interest rates will advance to 9.5% per annum on the next Wednesday ( 9 ) , when the meeting ends of the Monetary Policy Committee ( Monetary Policy Committee ) this month . For the closing of 2013 and 2014, the estimate of analysts for interest was maintained at 9.75 % per year - which still involves a new high this year .
Gross Domestic Product
For the behavior of GDP this year , the financial market has raised its forecast for a rise of 2.4% to 2.47 % last week , in line with estimates both the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry - which provide an expansion the economy of 2.5 % this year .
For 2014, the estimate of analysts for economic growth remained at 2.20%.
inflation
By targeting system in force in Brazil , the central bank has to calibrate interest rates to achieve pre-set targets , based on the IPCA . For 2013 and 2014 , the central inflation target is 4.5 % , with a tolerance interval of two percentage points up or down. Thus, the IPCA can be between 2.5 % and 6.5 % without the goal is formally violated .
Analysts from financial institutions maintained their estimate for the National Index of Consumer Price Index (IPCA ) this year at 5.82 % last week . Already in 2014 , the forecast of economists from banks decreased from 5.97 % to 5.95 % .
The president of BC , Alexander Tombini said that inflation would fall this year compared to the level recorded in 2012 ( 5.84 % ) and in the year 2014 . Although still keep believing in the deceleration of inflation this year , the market provides, however, inflation growth in 2014 - the last term of President Dilma Rousseff .
Rates , balance of trade and foreign investment
In this edition of Focus report , the projection of the financial market to the exchange rate at the end of 2013 remained stable at R  2.30 per dollar . For the closing of 2014, the estimate of analysts from banks for the dollar remained at R$ 2.40.
The projection of economists in the financial market for the surplus of the trade balance ( exports minus imports ) in 2013 was maintained at R $ 2 billion last week . For 2014, the forecast trade surplus fell from US$ 10 billion to US$ 9.25 billion last week.
For 2013 , the projection of inward investment in Brazil was unchanged at US$ 60 billion .
For 2014, the estimate of analysts for the continued inflow of foreign investments at US$ 60 billion last week.


Source : G1

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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.

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