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Economic indicators

Household consumption pulls GDP in 2012, but suffers tightening with inflation

04/03/2013

This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.

 

 


 


Discouraged to spend in 2013, families exchange for economy brands.
Inflation worries consumer who tries to keep spending at the same level.

One of those responsible for the growth of the economy in 2012, with growth of 3.1% year on year, household consumption is waiting for a moment before the price increase felt in his pocket and the uncertainty about the country's growth.

The reduction in the purchasing power of the social worker Vilma Barreto translates into that she could buy when I was an intern and now as a professional, you can not. "If I could choose, I would have bought a refrigerator along with the notebook I bought at the end of the year," he says, like it did when I was an intern: bought both refrigerator and stove.

"Before I did not have to look at the price of everything, but things came up," he says. Today, she saves and claims to have always the same pay. Changed the common bean by friar, go to the supermarket with longer intervals than a month to reduce spending on taxi - "that also rose, from £ 17 to £ 23" - and continues to see costs rise.

The IPCA, considered the official inflation rate of the country has been rising in recent months, and in January, reached 0.86%, the largest monthly rise since April 2005.

According to the chief economist of the National Association of Credit Institutions, Finance and Investment (Acrefi), Nicola Tingas, families face a budget adjustment that began in the second half of last year because of high prices, some loss of control budget and high indebtedness. "We are living in a period of careful crossing and is absolute, the budget is tight," says Tingas, who believes that the strength of household consumption should be resumed in the second half. Before that, there is uncertainty.

The confidence index of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - aiming at customer satisfaction with the current situation and expectations for the coming months - is in decline for five months. The decline in consumer confidence has been influenced to a greater extent by decreased satisfaction with the current situation than expectations for the months following, the foundation says.

In times of transition is normal that the price consumers pay attention to price shopping in supermarkets, says Tingas.

In search of savings, João Vale Pontes and his wife left the Néia evaluation by brand and stick the sticker price. Moreover, the list took items that had begun to buy recently, such as yogurt and chocolate and started buying meat from Monday or soft mattress. "A long time not buying chocolate, we are taking today because it was on promotion," says João, a hypermarket in the box, in São Paulo.

Unemployed by choice since October and after buying TV, mobile and car last year, Fabiana da Silva Santos does not want to spend anything beyond checking accounts, which still strives to maintain the same level of spending. Happy because the child begins to leave the diapers, which will reduce spending on the product, she points to the list of school supplies that will get buy in place.

Whenever realize the high price of something that is part of your shopping list, it seeks alternatives to keep spending. The milk with vitamin that his son took, for example, she replaced it with whole milk and food supplement.

Inflation
Professor Jacqueline Haffner, researching emerging economies and their growth models at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), points out that consumption must be accompanied by production not to generate inflation. "Otherwise, the lower layers are the ones that will feel the most because that's where inflation weighs more income. If prices rise and wages have no counterparts, they reduce consumption, "he says.

In the analysis of teacher Hildete Pereira de Melo Hermes de Araújo, who researches the services sector at Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), there should be an increase in production in 2013 which will react to the economy and consumption remain at the same level. "The level of employment is rising with the increased production and consumption will continue at the same level, and as an important aspect," he says.

Professor Marcel Guedes Leite, PUC-SP, remember that growth is centered on consumption for some time. "Initially it was seen as a marvel, but the novelty is that in 2012 the GDP has not grown as
should. Looks like we found a limit to grow ruled in consumption, "he says. The main problem of this model, for him, is the high inflation." The problem is how to sustain it and also no good expectations for 2013. There are huge inflationary pressure and not
can leverage (consumption), "he says.

Future consumption
On the one hand, experts point out that household consumption may have minimized the impact of the international crisis on the country's economy, as exports and production have fallen, but internally purchases continued. On the other hand, however, the continuity of this model worries experts - although none of them see a scenario similar to the current bet, and that investment and industrial production will show results this year.

To Professor Jacqueline Haffner, UFRGS, the continuity of the bet in household consumption can lead to high imports - imported for consumption - and bring even more problems for families if there is an increase in unemployment.

The evaluation of Hildete, UFF, is that household consumption does not sustain growth in the medium term. "He has breath shorter. Income distribution gives a faster, but to be lasting must be anchored in increasing productivity, production, "he says.

Nicola Tingas, the Acrefi, points out that, to pull the GDP this year and encourage household consumption must anumar investment.
He also sees the start of the parade this year as required, since, with finance arranged, one can return to consume.




Source: G1 - News

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This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.

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