Industry should grow a little in March
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
Miriam Leitao
Tomorrow the IBGE releases the industrial production data for March and estimates for new growth in comparison with the previous month but still sharp drop over the same month of 2008. If it happens, means that the industry will rise another step in the (slow) recovery against the inclination of the end of last year.
The trends consultancy estimates an increase of 0.3% compared to February and a decrease of 10.5% compared to March 2008. The Department of Economic Studies of Bradesco estimated increase of 0.7% and down 10%; Concordia brokerage provides high of 0.8% and down 10%, the bet on bank Santander rose 1.8% and falling 8.5%. MB Associados believe in a 2% rise and fall of 8.5%. And the MCM Consultants provides high of 0.6% and the margin drop from 10.2% in March 2008. LCA consultancy is again more optimistic, forecasting growth of 4.5% and 6.5% drop (the consultancy was also more optimistic in February, but ended up getting off the mark with the given weak month, which showed high 1.8% compared with January).
In assessing the economist Marcela Prada, the trends, though the data of March have everything to be weak in April, the production can start to recover more strongly. She believes that the result of the industry in March will play Brazil in a technical recession, it will push down GDP Q1.
- I estimate a decrease of 1.5% of GDP in the 1st quarter of this year compared to the 4th quarter and a decrease of 2.2% compared to the 1st quarter of 2008. But from the 2nd quarter, the industry should have a little stronger because the stocks will have been reduced. This will cause the GDP still end the year with growth of 0.3% - she said.
For the chief economist at MB Associados, Sérgio Vale, the PIB of the 1st quarter is even close to recession. He thinks stronger recovery industry even only from the second half. Still, he believes that if his prediction is confirmed (high of 2%) would be good news.
- At this late date is a good number, but playing the first quarter GDP to a negative number in the first quarter. We confirm these data later, but initial estimates point to a fall of 2.4% compared to last year. Also to say industry falling 4.5% this year, with longer recovery until the second half - said Vale.
Also for the economist Leandro Padula, the MCM Consultores, a stronger recovery of the industry will only happen from the 2nd semester.
- The improvement should only come in the second half. Until consumer confidence and business confidence show that. Only improved expectations about the future. Current conditions still show pessimism.
Source: Globoonline
This article was translated by an automatic translation system, and was therefore not reviewed by people.
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